Riddle me Publix

Rumor has it that Publix Super Markets is thinking about opening a store in the Hendersonville area. One possible site is at the (ever) crowded Greenville Highway/Spartanburg Highway intersection, where the Atha Shopping Center is now.

In North Carolina/upper South Carolina, Publix store locations are:

• Ten in the Charlotte area (includes upper South Carolina), with five more in the works (Mecklenburg/York counties 2013 estimated population - 1,230,340)
• One in the Raleigh/Durham area with one to come (Wake/Durham/Orange counties 2013 est. population - 1,402,774)
• None in the southeastern part of the state (Wilmington, Jacksonville, etc.)
• None in the mid-upper part of the state (Winston-Salem, etc.)
• Eleven stores in the Greenville/Spartanburg area (Greenville/Spartanburg/Pickens counties 2013 est. population - 885,064)
• In the process of opening one south of Asheville on Route 25 (Buncombe county 2013 est. population - 247,912)
• Henderson county 2013 est. population is 109,540.

So I'm trying to figure out their business model:

• One of the most populated areas (Research Triangle) only has one Publix. Maybe the grocery store market is already saturated there and it's hard to break in?
• Two areas of the state (mid-upper with Winston-Salem et al. and southeastern with Jacksonville and Wilmington) with many more people than Buncombe and Henderson counties have no Publix.
• I can see opening a store or two in and around the Asheville area to establish a presence in the western part of the state, but it doesn't seem as though Hendersonville by itself is really big enough to support a Publix, especially a Publix far from I-26.
• Maybe projected demographics show a large increase in the population of Henderson county? The Henderson County planning department projects for 2020 a population of 115,554, and for 2030, a population of 122,861--not a particularly massive increase, but projections are just that. Maybe Publix has additional information. 

And then there are the carcasses of abandoned grocery stores already in that area: the Food Lion right across from Atha Plaza and the old Harris Teeter close by on Spartanburg Highway. The Greenville Highway/Spartanburg Highway intersection is already packed with dueling pharmacies (Walgreens and CVS), Fresh Market and Stein Mart, numerous small businesses, and White Street acting as a cut-through from Kanuga Road. A large (and Publix are large) store there would need extensive traffic control and street reconfiguration, I would think.

Ah well, we shall see. . .